Category: Overwatch League

I Simulated The Overwatch League 2019 Grand Final Two Million Times. Here’s What Happened.

~ mellopanther

As the host of Overwatch Minus Overwatch on the Unlocked app I need to make sure my mathematical game is the best it can be, but there’s a limit to what I can do, both in terms of skill (I do this as a hobby) and resources (I’m only one dude with a consumer PC and limited free time). These limits have prevented me from doing more complex modeling or things like Monte Carlo simulations. However, being that the Overwatch League Grand Final is on Sunday and I had a 10-day vacation in front of me, I decided to put in the extra work and simulate the potential outcomes when Vancouver and San Francisco meet once again, this time for all the monies.

Continue reading “I Simulated The Overwatch League 2019 Grand Final Two Million Times. Here’s What Happened.” →

ERRATA: Overwatch Minus Overwatch Episode 1

~ mellopanther

As part of Pop Ramen’s Unlocked channel, I’ve decided to share my love of Overwatch-flavored math. Overwatch Minus Overwatch is planned to be a twice-per-stage broadcast applying the same nerdy effort that I’ve used in articles previously here.

My debut episode at the start of week 1 went off with one hitch. I screwed up my math. The Binomial model I used to predict all the games fell apart because I realized how screwed up and complicated it was. As such, it was sacked midway through Week 1’s action and this info about the new model will replace it.

Continue reading “ERRATA: Overwatch Minus Overwatch Episode 1” →

It’s Not Called Underwatch: How Atlanta & Guangzhou Broke The Scoreboard

~ mellopanther

Many sports historians, especially ones who follow baseball, will tell you that one of the many reasons sports are so great is because every day, you’ll see something that’s never happened before in the history of the sport. The final match of the third week of Stage 2 was something we’d never seen before. On of the day before Earth Day, Overwatch League’s first two expansion teams, the Atlanta Reign and Guangzhou Charge, burned about as many CPU’s as a Bitcoin farm in the second and third maps of their match, tallying 28 points between them in an hour-long display that reminded people that are only me of Arena Football or the ABA. It was a match so unreal, I had to figure out how just unreal it was.

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Are The Vancouver Titans The Next Vegas Golden Knights?

~ mellopanther

A common sight at Vancouver Titans matches in Stage 1: victory [Photo: Robert Paul for Blizzard Entertainment]
Back in the old days of traditional sports, being an expansion team was awful. Your team was made up of sub-par talent cast off from other franchises and not very good. The NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers is sort of the ur-example of this, nearly going two full seasons before winning their first game. By buying an expansion team, you joined an exclusive club of bazillionaires, but you weren’t supposed to compete out of the box

That script changed in 2017, when the NHL added the Las Vegas Golden Knights. The Knights, thanks to a combination of more lax team-building guidelines and the ability to rally a community behind sports after a tragic incident, went on a tear, setting first-year records for wins and points, and they became the first expansion team in the four North American sports to win their division. Their success carried over to the playoffs, where they were the first first-year team in 50 years to reach the Stanley Cup Finals, losing to the Washington Capitals in 6 games. Despite capturing the hearts and minds of hockey and sports fans everyone, the Golden Knights are still considered a bit of a unicorn.

Until we start talking about the Vancouver Titans. Continue reading “Are The Vancouver Titans The Next Vegas Golden Knights?” →

Are The 2019 Valiant As Bad As The 2018 Dragons? (SPOILER: No)

~ mellopanther

(Note: The quality of this article has been partially affected by flu. Apologies from the management.)

On the last nationally televised game of Overwatch League’s Stage, a worldwide audience finally got to see the expansion Washington Justice win their first match. Even more exciting was seeing Gi Hyeon Chon (Ado), a 2nd-year player, end the league’s longest active losing streak by earning his first W in 37 tries. His former team, the Shanghai Dragons, got off their own schnide two weeks prior by winning their first three maps in their match. With a now 20-team league there are winners everywhere.

Except with the Los Angeles Valiant.

After a great 2018 campaign the team has fallen off the table and is 0-7 after Stage 1. Despite all the excitement and happiness surrounding the new Overwatch season, one has to worry if the Valiant is going to be the 2nd team in OWL history to go 0-28.

The short answer is “No.” The long answer is below.

Continue reading “Are The 2019 Valiant As Bad As The 2018 Dragons? (SPOILER: No)” →