As the host of Overwatch Minus Overwatch on the Unlocked app I need to make sure my mathematical game is the best it can be, but there’s a limit to what I can do, both in terms of skill (I do this as a hobby) and resources (I’m only one dude with a consumer PC and limited free time). These limits have prevented me from doing more complex modeling or things like Monte Carlo simulations. However, being that the Overwatch League Grand Final is on Sunday and I had a 10-day vacation in front of me, I decided to put in the extra work and simulate the potential outcomes when Vancouver and San Francisco meet once again, this time for all the monies.
How did I do it? Using my favorite coding program, I set up a series of biased coin tosses. Each toss would be biased based on both teams’ map winning percentages for each of the four Overwatch map types, in the order they are played in the playoffs. Once someone won four tosses, the game ended and the winner was noted. Repeat 999,999 more times, and log the results. I used the map win percentages I tweeted out on Wednesday to create this code, then hit compile. The program skipped a few, but the result was Vancouver won 523,702 to SF’s 476,298; therefore, the Titans have about a 52.37% chance to win the Grand Final.
However, the percentages I used are just a combination of all wins and losses. They do not account for each map in the pool having a 1/3 chance of being pulled. So I recounted using more appropriate weighting, and re-rolled another million times. This recount allowed for the Titans to win an additional 303 times out of a million, making their win chance 52.4%.
Now of course, this is a very rudimentary simulation. If I wanted to be diligent I would’ve coded in the dominant map-picking strategies for each team (i.e. choose the map where you have the better performance vs your opponent) but I don’t have the spoons for that. Regardless, this and everything else we’ve posted should tell you that this is a toss-up. The advantage the Titans have is that they are stronger on Control and Hybrid maps, which are played four times in the first six rounds. If they can hold serve on these maps, the title is theirs. If not, San Francisco really does have a chance to #ShockTheWorld and claim the $1.1 Million all to themselves. We’ll all find out what happens this Sunday.
Don’t forget to watch me recap this season and project to 2020 on the season finale of Overwatch Minus Overwatch Tuesday, October 1 at 9PM ET, only on the Unlocked App
