I Simulated The Overwatch League 2019 Grand Final Two Million Times. Here’s What Happened.

As the host of Overwatch Minus Overwatch on the Unlocked app I need to make sure my mathematical game is the best it can be, but there’s a limit to what I can do, both in terms of skill (I do this as a hobby) and resources (I’m only one dude with a consumer PC and limited free time). These limits have prevented me from doing more complex modeling or things like Monte Carlo simulations. However, being that the Overwatch League Grand Final is on Sunday and I had a 10-day vacation in front of me, I decided to put in the extra work and simulate the potential outcomes when Vancouver and San Francisco meet once again, this time for all the monies.

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Are The Vancouver Titans The Next Vegas Golden Knights?

A common sight at Vancouver Titans matches in Stage 1: victory [Photo: Robert Paul for Blizzard Entertainment]
Back in the old days of traditional sports, being an expansion team was awful. Your team was made up of sub-par talent cast off from other franchises and not very good. The NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers is sort of the ur-example of this, nearly going two full seasons before winning their first game. By buying an expansion team, you joined an exclusive club of bazillionaires, but you weren’t supposed to compete out of the box

That script changed in 2017, when the NHL added the Las Vegas Golden Knights. The Knights, thanks to a combination of more lax team-building guidelines and the ability to rally a community behind sports after a tragic incident, went on a tear, setting first-year records for wins and points, and they became the first expansion team in the four North American sports to win their division. Their success carried over to the playoffs, where they were the first first-year team in 50 years to reach the Stanley Cup Finals, losing to the Washington Capitals in 6 games. Despite capturing the hearts and minds of hockey and sports fans everyone, the Golden Knights are still considered a bit of a unicorn.

Until we start talking about the Vancouver Titans. Continue reading “Are The Vancouver Titans The Next Vegas Golden Knights?”