There’s been a lot of talk about how wide open the OWL Stage 3 playoff is going to be, but I have a chart to prove it. In it is everything you will need to know about this weekend.
For each match-up, I have each team’s map W-L-T record for the stage. That’s what I used to calculate each team’s chance of winning this round (column 3) using my binomial method. I then calculated their chances of winning the whole darn thing (column 4) by figuring out the outcomes for Every. Single. Scenario, including re-seeding. If you need an indication that the field is wide open, picking one item out of eight randomly is 12.5%. The US Women’s National Team had around a 20% chance to win the World Cup according to FiveThirtyEight’s model and that was out of twenty-four teams, not eight. Also, as a side note, San Francisco does have a better chance of winning the tournament than Hangzhou because we’re going on map records, not match records.
The final column is our OHI index that rates the potential watchability of a match-up based on talent level and competitiveness that I explained about in my last episode of Overwatch Minus Overwatch.
This is going to be a fun and crazy weekend.
